tennis projections

resolve tennis

ATP + WTA Wimbledon bracket from our own surface Elo + Bayesian aging-curve posterior + statistically significant archetype matchup matrix. Our completed projection plus the live bracket as it plays out.

Wimbledon 2026 — projections

Our completed bracket — the official draw run to a projected champion, every match called. Projected champs: Sinner (ATP), Sabalenka (WTA). Click any matchup for our detailed projection.

Surface Elo + aging + archetype · 128 draw · both tours

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Live bracket

The real bracket as it plays out — winners advance with actual results, today's order of play down the side. Plus a matchup picker to test any "if they meet" you want.

ESPN results · refreshed through the day · both tours

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how the projections have held up

Brier 0.184

Wimbledon 2026 across both brackets

169 of 231 calls (73% decisive) · lower is better · tighter than the bookmaker-calibrated tennis band (0.20–0.22)

85%

of decisive World Cup group-stage matches projected correctly

29 of 34 · projections locked 4 days before kickoff · outperformed market consensus (RPS 0.171 vs 0.20–0.22 band)

how it's built

Surface-specific ratings. Every player carries a separate strength on hard, clay, and grass — they're not the same player on each.
Age-aware. Ratings ride a career arc fit from decades of tour results, so form and age are priced in, not assumed away.
Style matchups. Some games travel better on certain surfaces; the model reads the stylistic edge in each pairing.
Proven out-of-sample. Every call is walk-forward tested on matches the model never trained on — no hindsight, no curve-fitting.