tennis projections

resolve tennis

ATP + WTA US Open bracket from our own surface Elo + Bayesian aging-curve posterior + statistically significant archetype matchup matrix. Draw favorites now, the full projected bracket as the field sets, then the live bracket as it plays out.

the ways in

how the model has held up, across the site

Brier 0.183US Open 2026 across both brackets177 of 243 calls (73% decisive) · frozen before the draw · tighter than the bookmaker-calibrated tennis band (0.20–0.22)

Brier 0.190every Grand Slam match we've called, pooled354 of 497 calls (71% decisive) across 2 majors · frozen pre-tournament · lower is better

85%of decisive World Cup group-stage matches projected correctly29 of 34 · projections locked 4 days before kickoff · outperformed market consensus (RPS 0.171 vs 0.20–0.22 band)

These are the model's results wherever it has been scored so far. Per sport numbers replace them as each sport builds up a record.